A Tale of Two Drawdowns

Investors have experienced a dramatic start to the decade with two stock market drawdowns of more than 20%. Here, we use two charts to illustrate how in the worst of markets, investors who maintain discipline can quickly capture the best of markets.

We all remember the decade’s first drawdown in 2020. While this was an uncomfortable time for many investors, those who maintained discipline were rewarded. During the drawdown, I doubt that few of us felt the S&P 500 would mount a stunning recovery and end the year in positive territory, as shown below.

In the current 2022 drawdown, investors have been incorporating new information into prices regarding interest rates and inflation, largely driven by supply chain constraints and higher energy prices. When investors adjust their expectations, prices react in real time, but this doesn’t mean future expected returns are lower. Investors still demand a rate of return on their capital.

While the market might not recover by the end of the year, we can look to history as a guide for expected returns, seeing that after a decline of 20% or more, the S&P 500 posted strong average returns over the next 1, 3, and 5-year periods, as shown below.
In conclusion, investors might again be uncomfortable in the current drawdown, but we urge them to stick with their investment plan because history shows they are likely to capture the upside. If you have any questions about this or any other topic, our financial advisors in Austin would be happy to share additional materials.

About Author

Josh Clifford, CFP®

Josh joined ML&R Wealth Management in the Summer of 2022. He brings a broad investment background to the ML&R Wealth Management team. Josh managed separate accounts for ultra-high net worth families and multi-billion-dollar mutual funds at an institutional money manager. He oversaw portfolios at several private wealth management firms, and prior to joining ML&R Wealth Management, Josh founded a firm that consulted other investment advisors on their investment lineups, investment strategies, portfolio design, and client communications. Josh earned a Bachelor’s in Economics from the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor and a Master’s in Professional Accounting from The University of Texas at Austin. Josh is a Certified Public Accountant in Texas , a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional, and holds a Chartered Financial Analyst® designation, a leading mark for investment managers.

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